Kasimpasa v Çorluspor 1947: analysis and our pick

Kasimpasa in good form

Kasimpasa have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Eyupspor and a 4–1 home win over Samsunspor. Çorluspor 1947 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Menemen FK and a 1–0 away win at Erbaaspor.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Kasimpasa score 1.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Çorluspor 1947 1.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Kasimpasa · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Kasimpasa have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kasimpasa — last game: Away to Eyupspor (1-0) they had 48% of the shots (10 to 11, on target 4-3) and 49% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 19% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Çorluspor 1947 — last game: Against Menemen FK (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..