Køge W v Barcelona W: analysis and our pick

Køge W in good form

Køge W have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win at KoldingQ W and a 1–1 home draw with Brøndby W. Barcelona W have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Granada CF and a 1–2 away defeat at Real Sociedad W.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 55%. Køge W score 3.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Barcelona W 3.8 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 2.4 = 4.2 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Barcelona W · 51%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 79%). Most likely score: 1–2.

Why these picks?

Barcelona W have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Køge W — last game: Away to KoldingQ W (3-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 54% of the shots and 80% of the shots on target. They turn 100% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 150% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Barcelona W — last game: Against Real Madrid W (7-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged 83% of the shots and 100% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 2). They turn 118% of their shots on target into goals.