Hoek v Sparta Nijkerk: analysis and our pick
KNVB Beker · Thursday 29 October 21:00 · Sportpark Denoek. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Hoek looking for a response
Hoek have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Quick Boys and a 0–0 home draw with Kozakken Boys. Sparta Nijkerk have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Hoogeveen and a 0–3 away defeat at Purmersteijn.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Hoek score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game, Sparta Nijkerk 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.5 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Sparta Nijkerk · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Sparta Nijkerk have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Hoek — last game: Away to Quick Boys (1-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.