Guarany de Sobral v América PE: analysis and our pick
Pernambucano - 1 · Thursday 29 October 20:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Guarany de Sobral looking for a response
Guarany de Sobral have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Ipojuca and a 1–3 away defeat at Crato. América PE have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Íbis and a 1–1 home draw with Acadêmica Vitória.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 50%. Guarany de Sobral score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game, América PE 2.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.7 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · América PE · 50%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
América PE have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.