Gloria Bistriţa v FCSB: analysis and our pick

FCSB have a chance to respond

Gloria Bistriţa have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Dumbrăviţa and a 0–3 away defeat at FC Bacau. FCSB have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Rapid and a 2–1 away win at FC Voluntari.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. Gloria Bistriţa score 1.0 and concede 1.4 a game, FCSB 1.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Gloria Bistriţa · 40%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Gloria Bistriţa have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Gloria Bistriţa — last game: Away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. FCSB — last game: Against Rapid (4-1) they had 81% of the shots (22 to 5, on target 9-1) and 59% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 1 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 58′. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.