Frosinone v Lecce: analysis and our pick

Frosinone in good form

Frosinone have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–4 away draw with Atalanta and a 4–2 home win over Sassuolo. Lecce have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Juventus and a 3–0 away win at Udinese.

The head-to-head favours Lecce

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Frosinone, 2 draws, 3 for Lecce, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Frosinone 1–1 Lecce (3 Mar 2024).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 40%. Frosinone score 2.4 and concede 2.0 a game, Lecce 1.4 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Frosinone · 39%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Frosinone have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Frosinone — last game: Away to Atalanta (4-4) they had 52% of the shots (24 to 22, on target 10-9) and 53% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 4 from 9 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Lecce — last game: Against Juventus (0-2) they had 67% of the shots (16 to 8, on target 4-2) and 42% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Lecce (Kialonda Gaspar): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.