Fiorentina v Atalanta: analysis and our pick

Fiorentina looking for a response

Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Inter and a 1–3 home defeat to Como. Atalanta have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 4–4 home draw with Frosinone and a 0–2 away defeat at Ajax.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Fiorentina, 1 draw, 2 for Atalanta, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta (22 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 65%. Fiorentina score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Atalanta 2.4 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Fiorentina · 38%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Fiorentina have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Fiorentina — last game: Away to Inter (1-2) they had 18% of the shots (7 to 33, on target 2-11) and 37% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 11 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Atalanta — last game: Against Frosinone (4-4) they had 48% of the shots (22 to 24, on target 9-10) and 47% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 4 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 37% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.