Eskişehirspor v Iğdır FK: analysis and our pick
Türkiye Kupası · Thursday 29 October 19:30. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Eskişehirspor in good form
Eskişehirspor have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Bursa Yıldırımspor and a 4–1 away win at Altay. Iğdır FK have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Bandırmaspor and a 1–0 home win over Boluspor.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 55%. Eskişehirspor score 2.8 and concede 1.0 a game, Iğdır FK 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Eskişehirspor · 54%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Eskişehirspor have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Eskişehirspor — last game: Against Etimesgut SK (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Iğdır FK — last game: Away to Bandırmaspor (2-1) they had 38% of the shots (8 to 13, on target 6-6) and 33% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 6 on target. 🟥 Red card on 64′ for Iğdır FK (Leandro Bacuna): they played with ten for ~26 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: under 77% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 65% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 84′. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.