Atletico Tucuman v Platense: analysis and our pick
Copa Argentina · Thursday 29 October 02:15 · Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Atletico Tucuman looking for a response
Atletico Tucuman have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Tigre and a 2–3 home defeat to Rosario Central. Platense have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Gimnasia M. and a 0–1 home defeat to Lanus.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 60%. Atletico Tucuman score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Platense 1.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.2 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Platense · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Platense have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Atletico Tucuman — last game: Away to Tigre (1-0) they had 41% of the shots (11 to 16, on target 3-5) and 31% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 75′ for Atletico Tucuman (Ramiro Ruiz Rodriguez): they played with ten for ~15 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target. They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Platense — last game: Away to Gimnasia M. (2-1) they had 61% of the shots (22 to 14, on target 8-2) and 51% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 64% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.