Antequera v Águilas: analysis and our pick

Águilas have a chance to respond

Antequera have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Huesca and a 2–3 away defeat at Real Madrid II. Águilas have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Teruel and a 1–2 home defeat to Ibiza.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 65%. Antequera score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Águilas 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Antequera · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Antequera have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Antequera — last game: Against FC Cartagena (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Águilas — last game: Against Ibiza (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2.