ACV v AFC Amsterdam: analysis and our pick
KNVB Beker · Thursday 29 October 21:00 · Sportpark ICT Specialist. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
AFC Amsterdam have a chance to respond
ACV have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Dovo and a 4–1 away win at Hoogeveen. AFC Amsterdam have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Almere City II and a 1–4 away defeat at Barendrecht.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. ACV score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game, AFC Amsterdam 0.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.3 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · ACV · 53%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
ACV have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
ACV — last game: Against Purmersteijn (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. AFC Amsterdam — last game: Away to Barendrecht (1-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.