Venezia v Inter: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 19:30 · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Venezia looking for a response
Venezia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Genoa and a 1–0 home win over Napoli. Inter have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Fiorentina and a 1–0 home win over Shakhtar Donetsk.
The head-to-head favours Inter
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Venezia, 0 draws, 5 for Inter, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Inter 5–1 Venezia (3 Dec 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Venezia score 0.8 and concede 2.0 a game, Inter 2.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.9 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Inter · 55%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Inter have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Venezia — last game: Away to Genoa (0-1) they had 74% of the shots (20 to 7, on target 5-4) and 55% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–65′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 65′–75′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 18% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Inter — last game: Against Fiorentina (2-1) they had 83% of the shots (33 to 7, on target 11-2) and 63% possession. From 11 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 69% of the shots and 72% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.