Urawa Reds W v Sanfrecce Hiroshima W: analysis and our pick

Urawa Reds W in good form

Urawa Reds W have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over INAC Kobe Leonessa W and a 1–2 away defeat at JEF United W. Sanfrecce Hiroshima W have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Parceiro Nagano W and a 2–3 home defeat to Tokyo Verdy Beleza W.

The head-to-head favours Urawa Reds W

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Urawa Reds W, 2 draws, 1 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima W, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 2–1 Urawa Reds W (15 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 35%, both teams scored 40%. Urawa Reds W score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Sanfrecce Hiroshima W 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.0 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Urawa Reds W · 54%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Urawa Reds W have the highest probability (54%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Urawa Reds W — last game: Against INAC Kobe Leonessa W (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Sanfrecce Hiroshima W — last game: Against Parceiro Nagano W (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.