ST Mirren v Hibernian: analysis and our pick
Premiership · tomorrow 21:45 · The SMiSA Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
ST Mirren looking for a response
ST Mirren have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Dundee and a 1–3 away defeat at Aberdeen. Hibernian have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Celtic and a 1–2 home defeat to Falkirk.
The head-to-head favours Hibernian
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for ST Mirren, 3 draws, 2 for Hibernian, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Hibernian 2–0 ST Mirren (14 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. ST Mirren score 0.6 and concede 2.6 a game, Hibernian 0.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.5 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Hibernian · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Hibernian have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
ST Mirren — last game: Against Dundee (2-1) they had 38% of the shots (9 to 15, on target 5-4) and 49% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 0′–18′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 18′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 20′. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 32% of the shots on target. They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Hibernian — last game: Against Celtic (1-2) they had 46% of the shots (13 to 15, on target 2-4) and 39% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: under 69% of the pressure → conceded on 5′, scored on the break on 3′. 30′–45′: under 67% of the pressure → conceded on 43′. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.