ST Johnstone v Motherwell: analysis and our pick

Motherwell have a chance to respond

ST Johnstone have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–4 away defeat at Rangers and a 1–1 home draw with Dundee Utd. Motherwell have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Hearts and a 2–3 away defeat at Kilmarnock.

The head-to-head favours Motherwell

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for ST Johnstone, 0 draws, 3 for Motherwell, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: ST Johnstone 0–1 Motherwell (16 Aug 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. ST Johnstone score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Motherwell 0.6 and 2.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.3 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · ST Johnstone · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

ST Johnstone have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

ST Johnstone — last game: Away to Rangers (0-4) they had 29% of the shots (9 to 22, on target 2-9) and 36% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 4 from 9 on target. 🟥 Red card on 74′ for ST Johnstone (Kai Fotheringham): they played with ten for ~16 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 92% of the pressure → conceded on 29′. 30′–45′: under 92% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 33% of the shots and 32% of the shots on target. They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 2 theirs. Motherwell — last game: Against Hearts (0-2) they had 55% of the shots (17 to 14, on target 5-5) and 53% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 29′. 60′–75′: pressed with 82% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 14% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5.