Penarol v Atletico Torque: analysis and our pick

Atletico Torque have a chance to respond

Penarol have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Juventud and a 0–1 away defeat at Liverpool Montevideo. Atletico Torque have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Cerro and a 2–0 home win over Atletico-MG.

The head-to-head favours Penarol

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Penarol, 1 draw, 0 for Atletico Torque, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Atletico Torque 1–1 Penarol (1 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 55%. Penarol score 0.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Atletico Torque 1.4 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 0.9 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Penarol · 52%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Penarol have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Penarol — last game: Away to Juventud (0-0) they had 67% of the shots (6 to 3, on target 2-0) and 55% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, faced no shots on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Penarol (Brian Barboza): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 62% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 2 theirs. Atletico Torque — last game: Against Cerro (3-1) they had 61% of the shots (11 to 7, on target 6-5) and 55% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 89′ for Atletico Torque (Kevin Isaias·Silva): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: pressed with 91% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 31′. 75′–90′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 63% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.