Parma v Udinese: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 19:30 · Ennio Tardini. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Parma looking for a response
Parma have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Lazio and a 0–3 home defeat to Torino. Udinese have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to AC Milan and a 0–3 home defeat to Lecce.
The head-to-head favours Udinese
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Parma, 1 draw, 3 for Udinese, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Udinese 0–1 Parma (18 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Parma score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game, Udinese 0.4 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Udinese · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Udinese have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Parma — last game: Away to Lazio (1-2) they had 34% of the shots (11 to 21, on target 5-4) and 32% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Udinese — last game: Against AC Milan (0-2) they had 39% of the shots (12 to 19, on target 5-7) and 40% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.