Monza v Napoli: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 21:45 · Stadio Brianteo. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Monza looking for a response
Monza have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Torino and a 4–0 home win over Cagliari. Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–3 home draw with AS Roma and a 4–3 home win over Bodo/Glimt.
The head-to-head favours Napoli
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Monza, 1 draw, 3 for Napoli, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Monza 0–1 Napoli (19 Apr 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 70%. Monza score 2.2 and concede 2.2 a game, Napoli 2.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Monza · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Monza have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Monza — last game: Away to Torino (2-3) they had 29% of the shots (7 to 17, on target 3-7) and 49% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 7 on target. 0′–15′: under 67% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 68% of the pressure → conceded on 61′, 72′. 75′–90′: under 89% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 90′. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target. They turn 73% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 58% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs. Napoli — last game: Against AS Roma (3-3) they had 38% of the shots (15 to 24, on target 9-4) and 39% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 3 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Napoli (Massimiliano Allegri): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.