Libertad Asuncion v Independiente F.b.c.: analysis and our pick
Copa Paraguay · tomorrow 00:30 · La Arboleda. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Independiente F.b.c. have a chance to respond
Libertad Asuncion have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Sportivo Luqueno and a 0–1 away defeat at Sportivo Trinidense. Independiente F.b.c. have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Paraguari AC and a 2–3 away defeat at Tacuary.
The head-to-head favours Libertad Asuncion
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Libertad Asuncion, 0 draws, 2 for Independiente F.b.c., with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Independiente F.b.c. (23 Oct 2018).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Libertad Asuncion score 1.0 and concede 1.0 a game, Independiente F.b.c. 2.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Libertad Asuncion · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Libertad Asuncion have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Libertad Asuncion — last game: Against Sportivo Luqueno (1-0) they had 43% of the shots (12 to 16, on target 4-6) and 48% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 6 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs. Independiente F.b.c. — last game: Against Atlético Tembetary (3-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.