Hearts v Rangers: analysis and our pick

Rangers have a chance to respond

Hearts have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Motherwell and a 0–2 away defeat at Trabzonspor. Rangers have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over ST Johnstone and a 2–2 away draw with Dundee.

The head-to-head favours Hearts

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Hearts, 0 draws, 2 for Rangers, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Hearts 2–1 Rangers (4 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Hearts score 1.8 and concede 2.0 a game, Rangers 2.6 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.5 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Hearts · 43%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Hearts have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Hearts — last game: Away to Motherwell (2-0) they had 45% of the shots (14 to 17, on target 5-5) and 47% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 73% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 29′. 60′–75′: under 82% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Rangers — last game: Against ST Johnstone (4-0) they had 71% of the shots (22 to 9, on target 9-2) and 64% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 0 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 74′ for ST Johnstone (Kai Fotheringham): the opponent played with ten for ~16 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 29′. 30′–45′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 72% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 34% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.