Genoa v Juventus: analysis and our pick

Genoa looking for a response

Genoa have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Venezia and a 0–2 away defeat at AS Roma. Juventus have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Lecce and a 2–2 home draw with Rennes.

The head-to-head favours Juventus

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Genoa, 1 draw, 4 for Juventus, with 1.4 goals a game. Most recently: Juventus 2–0 Genoa (6 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 45%. Genoa score 0.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Juventus 1.4 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.4 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Juventus · 47%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 58%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Juventus have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 58% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Genoa — last game: Against Venezia (1-0) they had 26% of the shots (7 to 20, on target 4-5) and 45% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–65′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 65′–75′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Juventus — last game: Away to Lecce (2-0) they had 33% of the shots (8 to 16, on target 2-4) and 58% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Lecce (Kialonda Gaspar): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 60% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents.