Dundee v Kilmarnock: analysis and our pick
Premiership · tomorrow 21:45 · Dens Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Kilmarnock have a chance to respond
Dundee have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at ST Mirren and a 2–2 home draw with Rangers. Kilmarnock have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Falkirk and a 3–2 home win over Motherwell.
The head-to-head favours Dundee
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Dundee, 2 draws, 1 for Kilmarnock, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee (12 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Dundee score 1.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Kilmarnock 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.4 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Dundee · 43%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Dundee have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Dundee — last game: Away to ST Mirren (1-2) they had 63% of the shots (15 to 9, on target 4-5) and 51% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 0′–18′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 18′–30′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 20′. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 48% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Kilmarnock — last game: Away to Falkirk (0-3) they had 36% of the shots (10 to 18, on target 0-8) and 37% possession. No shots on target, conceded 3 from 8 on target. 30′–45′: under 73% of the pressure → conceded on 38′. 60′–75′: under 88% of the pressure → conceded on 68′. 75′–90′: under 86% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 39% of the shots on target. They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.