Deportivo Tachira FC v Monagas SC: analysis and our pick

Deportivo Tachira FC in good form

Deportivo Tachira FC have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Caracas FC and a 1–1 home draw with Monagas SC. Monagas SC have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Puerto Cabello and a 1–1 away draw with Deportivo Tachira FC.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Deportivo Tachira FC, 1 draw, 2 for Monagas SC, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Deportivo Tachira FC 1–1 Monagas SC (22 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 75%. Deportivo Tachira FC score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Monagas SC 1.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.3 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Deportivo Tachira FC · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Deportivo Tachira FC have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Deportivo Tachira FC — last game: Against UCV (4-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Monagas SC — last game: Against Estudiantes de Merida FC (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..