Cucuta v Águilas Doradas: analysis and our pick

Cucuta in good form

Cucuta have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at America de Cali and a 1–0 home win over Atletico Nacional. Águilas Doradas have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Junior and a 2–1 home win over Deportes Tolima.

An even head-to-head

In the last 4 meetings: 2 wins for Cucuta, 0 draws, 2 for Águilas Doradas, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Águilas Doradas 3–2 Cucuta (7 Feb 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 50%. Cucuta score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Águilas Doradas 1.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.1 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Cucuta · 43%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Cucuta have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Cucuta — last game: Away to America de Cali (1-3) they had 42% of the shots (11 to 15, on target 4-7) and 42% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 7 on target. 🟥 Red card on 66′ for Cucuta (L. Berdugo): they played with ten for ~24 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 15′–30′: under 78% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–61′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → no goal. 61′–75′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 17% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. Águilas Doradas — last game: Away to Junior (0-1) they had 38% of the shots (6 to 10, on target 1-4) and 63% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.