Chico v Junior: analysis and our pick
Primera A · tomorrow 03:05 · Estadio La Independencia. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Chico looking for a response
Chico have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Bucaramanga and a 0–2 away defeat at Deportivo Pereira. Junior have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Águilas Doradas and a 0–0 away draw with Deportivo Cali.
The head-to-head favours Junior
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Chico, 1 draw, 4 for Junior, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Junior 3–0 Chico (8 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Chico score 0.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Junior 1.0 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.3 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Junior · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Junior have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Chico — last game: Against Bucaramanga (1-0) they had 70% of the shots (14 to 6, on target 5-2) and 50% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Junior — last game: Against Águilas Doradas (1-0) they had 63% of the shots (10 to 6, on target 4-1) and 37% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.