Celtic v Dundee Utd: analysis and our pick
Premiership · tomorrow 21:45 · Celtic Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Celtic in good form
Celtic have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Hibernian and a 1–2 home defeat to Celta Vigo. Dundee Utd have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Aberdeen and a 1–1 away draw with ST Johnstone.
The head-to-head favours Celtic
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Celtic, 0 draws, 2 for Dundee Utd, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Dundee Utd 0–4 Celtic (15 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 45%. Celtic score 2.6 and concede 1.6 a game, Dundee Utd 1.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.2 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Celtic · 56%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Celtic have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Celtic — last game: Away to Hibernian (2-1) they had 54% of the shots (15 to 13, on target 4-2) and 61% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → goal on 5′, conceded on 3′. 30′–45′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 43′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Dundee Utd — last game: Against Aberdeen (3-2) they had 41% of the shots (14 to 20, on target 6-3) and 44% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 71% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 23% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.