Ceara v Goias: analysis and our pick
Serie B · tomorrow 01:00 · Estadio Castelão. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Goias have a chance to respond
Ceara have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Juventude and a 0–1 away defeat at Botafogo SP. Goias have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Nautico Recife and a 2–0 away win at Operario-PR.
The head-to-head favours Goias
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Ceara, 3 draws, 2 for Goias, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Goias 2–0 Ceara (5 Jul 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Ceara score 1.2 and concede 1.0 a game, Goias 0.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.1 = 2.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Ceara · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Ceara have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Ceara — last game: Against Juventude (2-2) they had 57% of the shots (12 to 9, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Goias — last game: Against Nautico Recife (0-0) they had 56% of the shots (24 to 19, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 18% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.