Argentinos JRS v Independ. Rivadavia: analysis and our pick
Liga Profesional Argentina · tomorrow 00:00 · Diego Armando Maradona. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Independ. Rivadavia have a chance to respond
Argentinos JRS have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Banfield and a 1–1 away draw with Platense. Independ. Rivadavia have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Tigre and a 0–5 away defeat at Rosario Central.
The head-to-head favours Independ. Rivadavia
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Argentinos JRS, 2 draws, 3 for Independ. Rivadavia, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Independ. Rivadavia 3–1 Argentinos JRS (11 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 60%. Argentinos JRS score 1.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Independ. Rivadavia 1.0 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.0 = 2.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Argentinos JRS · 39%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Argentinos JRS have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Argentinos JRS — last game: Away to Banfield (1-0) they had 48% of the shots (13 to 14, on target 5-1). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 50% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. Red cards: 1 theirs. Independ. Rivadavia — last game: Against Tigre (2-2) they had 50% of the shots (11 to 11, on target 2-4). From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
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