Alianza v CD Marathon: analysis and our pick

CD Marathon have a chance to respond

Alianza have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Isidro Metapán and a 1–2 away defeat at CD Marathon. CD Marathon have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Atletico Independiente and a 2–1 home win over Alianza.

The head-to-head favours CD Marathon

In the last 3 meetings: 1 win for Alianza, 0 draws, 2 for CD Marathon, with 1.7 goals a game. Most recently: CD Marathon 2–1 Alianza (21 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 75%. Alianza score 1.0 and concede 1.2 a game, CD Marathon 1.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.2 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · CD Marathon · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 60%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

CD Marathon have the highest probability (36%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 60% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Alianza — last game: Against Isidro Metapán (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. CD Marathon — last game: Away to Lobos Upnfm (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..