AC Milan v Bologna: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 19:30 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
AC Milan in good form
AC Milan have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Udinese and a 0–3 away defeat at Bournemouth. Bologna have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Cagliari and a 1–3 home defeat to Inter.
The head-to-head favours AC Milan
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for AC Milan, 0 draws, 2 for Bologna, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Bologna 0–3 AC Milan (3 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. AC Milan score 2.0 and concede 1.2 a game, Bologna 1.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.0 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · AC Milan · 48%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
AC Milan have the highest probability (48%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
AC Milan — last game: Away to Udinese (2-0) they had 61% of the shots (19 to 12, on target 7-5) and 60% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 2, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 34% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs. Bologna — last game: Away to Cagliari (2-0) they had 71% of the shots (10 to 4, on target 5-1) and 43% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 57′. 60′–75′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.