Aberdeen v Falkirk: analysis and our pick
Premiership · tomorrow 21:45 · Pittodrie Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Falkirk have a chance to respond
Aberdeen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Dundee Utd and a 3–1 home win over ST Mirren. Falkirk have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Kilmarnock and a 2–1 away win at Hibernian.
The head-to-head favours Falkirk
In the last 3 meetings: 0 wins for Aberdeen, 1 draw, 2 for Falkirk, with 1.3 goals a game. Most recently: Aberdeen 1–1 Falkirk (14 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Aberdeen score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Falkirk 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.1 = 2.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Aberdeen · 34%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Aberdeen have the highest probability (34%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Aberdeen — last game: Away to Dundee Utd (2-3) they had 59% of the shots (20 to 14, on target 3-6) and 56% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 59% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Falkirk — last game: Against Kilmarnock (3-0) they had 64% of the shots (18 to 10, on target 8-0) and 63% possession. From 8 shots on target they scored 3, faced no shots on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 73% of the pressure → goal on 38′. 60′–75′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → goal on 68′. 75′–90′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.