Union Santa Fe v Estudiantes L.P.: analysis and our pick

Union Santa Fe looking for a response

Union Santa Fe have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Deportivo Riestra and a 0–2 home defeat to Defensa Y Justicia. Estudiantes L.P. have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Flamengo and a 1–2 home defeat to San Lorenzo.

The head-to-head favours Estudiantes L.P.

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Union Santa Fe, 1 draw, 3 for Estudiantes L.P., with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Estudiantes L.P. 2–1 Union Santa Fe (11 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Union Santa Fe score 0.6 and concede 2.0 a game, Estudiantes L.P. 1.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.2 = 2.1 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Estudiantes L.P. · 39%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Estudiantes L.P. have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Union Santa Fe — last game: Away to Deportivo Riestra (1-1) they had 48% of the shots (12 to 13, on target 5-3). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 14% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Estudiantes L.P. — last game: Away to Flamengo (0-0) they had 38% of the shots (8 to 13, on target 3-3) and 24% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 50′ for Estudiantes L.P. (Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez): they played with ten for ~40 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 88% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.