Torino v Como: analysis and our pick

Torino in good form

Torino have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Monza and a 3–0 away win at Parma. Como have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Sassuolo and a 4–1 home win over Manchester United.

The head-to-head favours Como

In the last 4 meetings: 1 win for Torino, 0 draws, 3 for Como, with 3.5 goals a game. Most recently: Como 6–0 Torino (24 Jan 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Torino score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Como 2.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.9 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Como · 52%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Como have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Torino — last game: Against Monza (3-2) they had 71% of the shots (17 to 7, on target 7-3) and 51% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: pressed with 68% of the pressure → goal on 61′, 72′. 75′–90′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 90′. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 35% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Como — last game: Against Sassuolo (2-0) they had 67% of the shots (14 to 7, on target 6-0) and 56% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, faced no shots on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 85% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: under 80% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 89% of the pressure → goal on 49′, 60′. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Torino) 4.50 → 5.25 (+16.7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.75 → 2.62 (-4.7%, backed) · Under 3.5 1.44 → 1.50 (+4.2%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.33 → 4.50 (+3.9%, drifting).