Şimal v Araz: analysis and our pick
Cup · tomorrow 12:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Araz have a chance to respond
Şimal have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–2 home win over Baku Sportinq and a 4–1 away win at Mingəçevir. Araz have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Qabala and a 1–2 away defeat at Sumqayıt.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 75%. Şimal score 2.4 and concede 1.8 a game, Araz 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.3 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Şimal · 53%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Şimal have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Araz — last game: Against Kapaz (0-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.