SHANGHAI SIPG v Công An Nhân Dân: analysis and our pick
AFC Champions League Elite · tomorrow 12:00 · Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
SHANGHAI SIPG in good form
SHANGHAI SIPG have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–1 away win at Tianjin Teda and a 3–0 home win over Chengdu Better City. Công An Nhân Dân have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Thanh Hóa and a 1–2 home defeat to Ha Noi.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. SHANGHAI SIPG score 3.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Công An Nhân Dân 1.2 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.2 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · SHANGHAI SIPG · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
SHANGHAI SIPG — last game: Away to Tianjin Teda (3-1) they had 57% of the shots (8 to 6, on target 3-4) and 65% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 1 from 4 on target. 🟥 Red card on 56′ for SHANGHAI SIPG (Yue Xin): they played with ten for ~34 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal, conceded on 73′. 75′–90′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held, scored on the break on 87′. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 63% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Công An Nhân Dân — last game: Against Kashima (0-1) they had 63% of the shots (17 to 10, on target 4-1). From 4 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 3 they averaged 63% of the shots and 80% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 3). They turn 100% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 100% of theirs. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.