Sassuolo v Lazio: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 19:30 · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Sassuolo looking for a response
Sassuolo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Como and a 2–4 away defeat at Frosinone. Lazio have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Parma and a 3–0 away win at Juventus.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Sassuolo score 1.4 and concede 2.2 a game, Lazio 2.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.8 = 3.0 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Lazio · 49%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 81%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Lazio have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 81% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Sassuolo — last game: Away to Como (0-2) they had 33% of the shots (7 to 14, on target 0-6) and 44% possession. No shots on target, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: under 85% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 89% of the pressure → conceded on 49′, 60′. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Lazio — last game: Against Parma (2-1) they had 66% of the shots (21 to 11, on target 4-5) and 68% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. 0′–15′: under 83% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: pressed with 71% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 93% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.