Santa Fe v Bucaramanga: analysis and our pick

Santa Fe in good form

Santa Fe have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Jaguares and a 0–1 away defeat at Llaneros. Bucaramanga have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Chico and a 1–1 home draw with America de Cali.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 60%. Santa Fe score 1.4 and concede 1.0 a game, Bucaramanga 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.0 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Santa Fe · 43%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Santa Fe have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Santa Fe — last game: Against Jaguares (2-1) they had 52% of the shots (14 to 13, on target 4-1) and 50% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target. They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Bucaramanga — last game: Away to Chico (0-1) they had 30% of the shots (6 to 14, on target 2-5) and 50% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 34% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 16% of theirs. Red cards: 2 theirs.