Pazarspor v Aliağa FAŞ: analysis and our pick

Pazarspor in good form

Pazarspor have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Beykoz İshaklıspor and a 1–0 home win over Tokat Bld Plevnespor. Aliağa FAŞ have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over 68 Aksaray Belediyespor and a 2–1 away win at Somaspor.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Pazarspor score 1.8 and concede 0.6 a game, Aliağa FAŞ 2.2 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.6 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Aliağa FAŞ · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Aliağa FAŞ have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Pazarspor — last game: Away to Beykoz İshaklıspor (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Aliağa FAŞ — last game: Away to Somaspor (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.