Paysandu v Colón: analysis and our pick

Colón have a chance to respond

Paysandu have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Fenix and a 2–1 home win over Rentistas. Colón have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Sportivo Huracan and a 3–1 away win at Uruguay Montevideo.

An even head-to-head

In the last 2 meetings: 1 win for Paysandu, 0 draws, 1 for Colón, with 3.5 goals a game. Most recently: Colón 2–3 Paysandu (25 Jul 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Paysandu score 1.2 and concede 1.0 a game, Colón 1.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.0 = 1.9 goals.

Our pick

Draw (X) · 35%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 70%). Most likely score: 0–0.

Why these picks?

The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 70% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (17%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Paysandu — last game: Against Rentistas (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Paysandu). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Colón — last game: Away to Uruguay Montevideo (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.