Nacional Potosí v Guabirá: analysis and our pick
Primera División · tomorrow 00:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Guabirá have a chance to respond
Nacional Potosí have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Oriente Petrolero and a 0–1 home defeat to Bolívar. Guabirá have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Oriente Petrolero and a 1–4 away defeat at Gualberto Villarroel SJ.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Nacional Potosí, 1 draw, 2 for Guabirá, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Guabirá 2–1 Nacional Potosí (18 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. Nacional Potosí score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game, Guabirá 1.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.2 + 1.1 = 3.3 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Nacional Potosí · 62%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Nacional Potosí have the highest probability (62%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Nacional Potosí — last game: Against Bolívar (0-1) they had 57% of the shots (16 to 12, on target 5-4). From 5 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 45% of the shots and 54% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 54% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 45% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Guabirá — last game: Against Oriente Petrolero (1-1) they had 41% of the shots (12 to 17, on target 2-6). From 2 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Guabirá). Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 19% of the shots on target. They turn 175% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 59% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.