Nacional v Britannia: analysis and our pick
Division di Honor · tomorrow 02:30. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Nacional in good form
Nacional have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Caiquetio and a 3–1 away win at Caravel. Britannia have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Weymouth Wales and a 3–1 home win over Sporting CP.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Nacional score 4.2 and concede 1.0 a game, Britannia 1.4 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 2.8 + 1.3 = 4.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Nacional · 66%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 78%). Most likely score: 2–1.
Why these picks?
Nacional have the highest probability (66%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Britannia — last game: Away to La Fama (2-2) they had 33% of the shots (1 to 2, on target 0-0) and 46% possession. No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged 33% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.