Mount Pleasant Academy v Montego Bay United: analysis and our pick

Montego Bay United have a chance to respond

Mount Pleasant Academy have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Club Sando and a 1–1 away draw with Club Sando. Montego Bay United have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Arnett Gardens and a 3–1 away win at Cavalier.

The head-to-head favours Mount Pleasant Academy

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Mount Pleasant Academy, 2 draws, 0 for Montego Bay United, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Montego Bay United 2–3 Mount Pleasant Academy (25 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 30%, both teams scored 40%. Mount Pleasant Academy score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game, Montego Bay United 1.4 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.1 + 1.3 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Montego Bay United · 38%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Montego Bay United have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Montego Bay United — last game: Away to Cavalier (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..