Kyoto Sanga v Newcastle Jets: analysis and our pick

Newcastle Jets have a chance to respond

Kyoto Sanga have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Gamba Osaka and a 2–2 home draw with Kashima. Newcastle Jets have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Macarthur and a 2–2 away draw with Central Coast Mariners.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 65%. Kyoto Sanga score 1.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Newcastle Jets 1.4 and 3.2. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.7 = 3.6 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Kyoto Sanga · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 69%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Kyoto Sanga have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 69% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Kyoto Sanga — last game: Away to Gamba Osaka (2-2) they had 54% of the shots (14 to 12, on target 3-7) and 53% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 🟥 Red card on 53′ for Gamba Osaka (Jun Ichimori): the opponent played with ten for ~37 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–32′: under 75% of the pressure → conceded on 31′. 75′–90′: pressed with 92% of the pressure → goal on 90′. Over the last 5 they averaged 41% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 23% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Newcastle Jets — last game: Against Macarthur (1-1) they had 63% of the shots (10 to 6, on target 3-3) and 58% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 86% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 83% of the pressure → no goal. 75′–90′: under 71% of the pressure → the defence held. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 58% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 67% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4.