Juventude v Nautico Recife: analysis and our pick
Serie B · tomorrow 01:30 · Estádio Alfredo Jaconi. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Juventude in good form
Juventude have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Ceara and a 2–2 home draw with São Bernardo. Nautico Recife have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Goias and a 0–2 home defeat to Vila Nova.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 45%. Juventude score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Nautico Recife 0.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 0.8 = 2.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Juventude · 51%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 62%). Most likely score: 1–0.
Why these picks?
Juventude have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–0 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Juventude — last game: Away to Ceara (2-2) they had 43% of the shots (9 to 12, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Nautico Recife — last game: Away to Goias (0-0) they had 44% of the shots (19 to 24, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.