Jaguares v Llaneros: analysis and our pick
Primera A · tomorrow 01:00 · Estadio Jaraguay. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Jaguares looking for a response
Jaguares have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Santa Fe and a 1–4 away defeat at Millonarios. Llaneros have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to Deportivo Cali and a 1–0 home win over Santa Fe.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 70%. Jaguares score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game, Llaneros 0.6 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.2 = 2.6 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Jaguares · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Jaguares have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Jaguares — last game: Away to Santa Fe (1-2) they had 48% of the shots (13 to 14, on target 1-4) and 50% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 32% of the shots and 27% of the shots on target. They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. Red cards: 1 theirs. Llaneros — last game: Against Deportivo Cali (0-3) they had 50% of the shots (9 to 9, on target 2-7) and 58% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 7 on target. 🟥 Red card on 81′ for Llaneros (H. H. Mena Posada): they played with ten for ~9 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–22′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 11′, 22′. 45′–60′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 80% of the pressure → conceded on 63′. Over the last 4 they averaged 48% of the shots and 51% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 9% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.