İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik v Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor: analysis and our pick

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik in good form

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Adana Demirspor and a 2–1 home win over Sebat Gençlikspor. Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Karacabey Belediyespor and a 4–1 home win over Serik Spor.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 1.6 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.1 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik · 50%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik — last game: Against Sebat Gençlikspor (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor — last game: Away to Karacabey Belediyespor (1-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 2.