Flamengo v Atletico-MG: analysis and our pick

Atletico-MG have a chance to respond

Flamengo have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Estudiantes L.P. and a 3–0 away win at Bahia. Atletico-MG have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Atletico Torque and a 1–0 home win over Coritiba.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Flamengo score 1.2 and concede 0.4 a game, Atletico-MG 1.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 0.8 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Flamengo · 49%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 62%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Flamengo have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 62% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Flamengo — last game: Against Estudiantes L.P. (0-0) they had 62% of the shots (13 to 8, on target 3-3) and 76% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 3 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 Red card on 50′ for Estudiantes L.P. (Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez): the opponent played with ten for ~40 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. 0′–15′: under 75% of the pressure → the defence held. 15′–30′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 51% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 11% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 4 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Atletico-MG — last game: Away to Atletico Torque (0-2) they had 11% of the shots (4 to 31, on target 2-7) and 31% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 7 on target. 🟥 Red card on 75′ for Atletico-MG (Alan Franco): they played with ten for ~15 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs.