Etimesgut SK v Gaziantep FK: analysis and our pick

Etimesgut SK in good form

Etimesgut SK have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 away win at Akşehirspor and a 2–2 home draw with Balıkesirspor. Gaziantep FK have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–3 home defeat to Erzurumspor FK and a 1–2 away defeat at Istanbul Basaksehir.

The head-to-head favours Gaziantep FK

In the last 1 meetings: 0 wins for Etimesgut SK, 0 draws, 1 for Gaziantep FK, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Gaziantep FK 2–1 Etimesgut SK (7 Dec 2023).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Etimesgut SK score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game, Gaziantep FK 0.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 0.8 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Etimesgut SK · 55%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Etimesgut SK have the highest probability (55%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Etimesgut SK — last game: Away to Akşehirspor (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Gaziantep FK — last game: Against Erzurumspor FK (1-3) they had 70% of the shots (19 to 8, on target 7-2) and 62% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 3 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 13% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4.