Daejeon Citizen v Vissel Kobe: analysis and our pick
AFC Champions League Elite · tomorrow 12:00 · Daejeon World Cup Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Daejeon Citizen in good form
Daejeon Citizen have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Gimcheon Sangmu FC and a 3–2 home win over Gwangju FC. Vissel Kobe have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 home draw with Machida Zelvia and a 1–2 away defeat at Kawasaki Frontale.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 65%. Daejeon Citizen score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, Vissel Kobe 1.6 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Daejeon Citizen · 43%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Daejeon Citizen have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Daejeon Citizen — last game: Away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC (2-1) they had 41% of the shots (9 to 13, on target 5-5) and 51% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 55% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Vissel Kobe — last game: Against Machida Zelvia (0-0) they had 49% of the shots (18 to 19, on target 6-7) and 50% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 7 shots on target and held (no goals). 75′–90′: pressed with 70% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 49% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 3 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.