Coritiba v Gremio: analysis and our pick

Coritiba looking for a response

Coritiba have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Atletico-MG and a 1–1 home draw with Botafogo. Gremio have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to Cruzeiro and a 1–1 home draw with Internacional.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 70%. Coritiba score 0.8 and concede 2.8 a game, Gremio 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Coritiba · 39%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Coritiba have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Coritiba — last game: Away to Atletico-MG (0-1) they had 37% of the shots (13 to 22, on target 3-10). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 36% of the shots and 25% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Gremio — last game: Against Cruzeiro (2-4) they had 57% of the shots (17 to 13, on target 6-6). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Gremio). Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 26% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.